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Casterton vs Lightning Ridge vs Numurkah — which is best for growth?

Same eight metrics, scored against the same benchmark, ranked against a $300kbudget. Look for where one suburb is materially ahead — that's the dimension that should sway your call.

  1. Casterton

    VIC · 3311
    30Below trend
    Median
    $195k
    5y growth
    5.4%/yr
    YieldThin market · ~2k residents

  2. Lightning Ridge

    NSW · 2834
    33Below trend
    Median
    $35k
    5y growth
    5.0%/yr
    YieldThin market · ~2k residents

  3. Numurkah

    VIC · 3636
    36Below trend
    Median
    $288k
    5y growth
    2.8%/yr
    YieldThin market · ~5k residents

Metric breakdown

Each row scores 0–100 against a fixed benchmark. The leader on each row is highlighted.

Metric · weight
Casterton
Lightning Ridge
Numurkah
Capital growth (5y)
weight 22%
545.4%/yr
505.0%/yr
282.8%/yr
Rental yield
weight 13%
854.3%
10029.7%
763.8%
Rental demand
weight 10%
402.4%
352.6%
402.4%
Population growth
weight 12%
787.8%
656.5%
787.8%
Income growth
weight 12%
5213.0%
5213.0%
5213.0%
Construction pipeline
weight 15%
0–
0–
0–
Affordability
weight 8%
3535% under cap
8888% under cap
44% under cap
Supply tightening
weight 8%
25+5.0% YoY
20+6.0% YoY
25+5.0% YoY

Winner per dimension

Where each suburb leads the field, with the count of dimensions won.

  1. Casterton

    1/8
    • Capital growth (5y)

  2. Lightning Ridge

    2/8
    • Rental yield
    • Affordability

  3. Numurkah

    0/8

    No outright lead on any single dimension.

Why Casterton

Thin market · ~2k residents

4.3% gross yield, population +7.8% (5y).

Drivers
  • Rental yield4.3%
  • Population growth+7.8% (5y)
Risks
  • Only 1,673 residents — illiquid, slow to sell
  • No major construction project in this state

Construction ·Melbourne Airport Rail — Sunshine Hub302.8 kmApproved · 2033

Why Lightning Ridge

Thin market · ~2k residents

29.7% gross yield, 88% under your cap.

Drivers
  • Rental yield29.7%
  • Budget headroom88% under cap
  • Population growth+6.5% (5y)
Risks
  • Only 1,946 residents — illiquid, slow to sell
  • Listings up 6.0% YoY — supply easing

Construction ·Sydney Metro — Western Sydney Airport559.2 kmConstruction · 2026

Why Numurkah

Thin market · ~5k residents

population +7.8% (5y), 3.8% gross yield.

Drivers
  • Population growth+7.8% (5y)
  • Rental yield3.8%
Risks
  • Only 4,604 residents — illiquid, slow to sell
  • At top of budget (96% of cap)

Construction ·North East Link — Bulleen189.9 kmConstruction · 2028