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Churchill vs Baxter vs Shepparton — which is best for rental demand?

Same eight metrics, scored against the same benchmark, ranked against a $900kbudget. Look for where one suburb is materially ahead — that's the dimension that should sway your call.

  1. Churchill

    VIC · 3842
    57Average
    Median
    $345k
    5y growth
    13.3%/yr
    GrowthThin market · ~5k residents

  2. Baxter

    VIC · 3911
    55Average
    Median
    $775k
    5y growth
    7.9%/yr
    GrowthGrowth-led, low cashflow

  3. Shepparton

    VIC · 3630
    55Average
    Median
    $480k
    5y growth
    11.2%/yr
    GrowthStable entry · room to scale

Metric breakdown

Each row scores 0–100 against a fixed benchmark. The leader on each row is highlighted.

Metric · weight
Churchill
Baxter
Shepparton
Capital growth (5y)
weight 22%
10013.3%/yr
797.9%/yr
10011.2%/yr
Rental yield
weight 13%
693.5%
482.4%
592.9%
Rental demand
weight 10%
402.4%
681.3%
402.4%
Population growth
weight 12%
787.8%
787.8%
787.8%
Income growth
weight 12%
5213.0%
6416.0%
5213.0%
Construction pipeline
weight 15%
0–
0–
0–
Affordability
weight 8%
6262% under cap
1414% under cap
4747% under cap
Supply tightening
weight 8%
25+5.0% YoY
80-6.0% YoY
25+5.0% YoY

Winner per dimension

Where each suburb leads the field, with the count of dimensions won.

  1. Churchill

    2/8
    • Rental yield
    • Affordability

  2. Baxter

    3/8
    • Rental demand
    • Income growth
    • Supply tightening

  3. Shepparton

    0/8

    No outright lead on any single dimension.

Why Churchill

Thin market · ~5k residents

13.3%/yr capital growth, population +7.8% (5y).

Drivers
  • Capital growth13.3%/yr
  • Population growth+7.8% (5y)
  • Rental yield3.5%
  • Budget headroom62% under cap
Risks
  • Only 4,924 residents — illiquid, slow to sell
  • No major construction project in this state

Construction ·Suburban Rail Loop East — Glen Waverley120.0 kmConstruction · 2035

Why Baxter

Growth-led, low cashflow

listings tightening 6.0% YoY, 7.9%/yr capital growth.

Drivers
  • Supply tightening-6.0% YoY
  • Capital growth7.9%/yr
  • Population growth+7.8% (5y)
  • Tight rentals1.3%
Risks
  • Thin gross yield (2.4%)
  • No major construction project in this state

Construction ·Suburban Rail Loop East — Cheltenham26.8 kmConstruction · 2035

Why Shepparton

Stable entry · room to scale

11.2%/yr capital growth, population +7.8% (5y).

Drivers
  • Capital growth11.2%/yr
  • Population growth+7.8% (5y)
Risks
  • No major construction project in this state

Construction ·North East Link — Bulleen156.9 kmConstruction · 2028