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Grafton vs Lithgow vs Oxley Vale — which is best for rental demand?

Same eight metrics, scored against the same benchmark, ranked against a $900kbudget. Look for where one suburb is materially ahead — that's the dimension that should sway your call.

  1. Grafton

    NSW · 2460
    41Below trend
    Median
    $530k
    5y growth
    5.0%/yr
    BalancedWatch supply easing

  2. Lithgow

    NSW · 2790
    41Below trend
    Median
    $508k
    5y growth
    5.0%/yr
    BalancedThin market · ~5k residents

  3. Oxley Vale

    NSW · 2340
    49Average
    Median
    $620k
    5y growth
    5.0%/yr
    BalancedStable entry point

Metric breakdown

Each row scores 0–100 against a fixed benchmark. The leader on each row is highlighted.

Metric · weight
Grafton
Lithgow
Oxley Vale
Capital growth (5y)
weight 22%
505.0%/yr
505.0%/yr
505.0%/yr
Rental yield
weight 13%
592.9%
572.9%
562.8%
Rental demand
weight 10%
352.6%
352.6%
681.3%
Population growth
weight 12%
656.5%
656.5%
656.5%
Income growth
weight 12%
5213.0%
5213.0%
6416.0%
Construction pipeline
weight 15%
0–
0–
0–
Affordability
weight 8%
4141% under cap
4444% under cap
3131% under cap
Supply tightening
weight 8%
20+6.0% YoY
20+6.0% YoY
75-5.0% YoY

Winner per dimension

Where each suburb leads the field, with the count of dimensions won.

  1. Grafton

    1/8
    • Rental yield

  2. Lithgow

    1/8
    • Affordability

  3. Oxley Vale

    3/8
    • Rental demand
    • Income growth
    • Supply tightening

Why Grafton

Watch supply easing

population +6.5% (5y), 2.9% gross yield.

Drivers
  • Population growth+6.5% (5y)
Risks
  • Listings up 6.0% YoY — supply easing
  • No major construction project in this state

Construction ·Parramatta Light Rail Stage 2494.3 kmApproved · 2031

Why Lithgow

Thin market · ~5k residents

population +6.5% (5y), 2.9% gross yield.

Drivers
  • Population growth+6.5% (5y)
Risks
  • Only 4,956 residents — illiquid, slow to sell
  • Listings up 6.0% YoY — supply easing

Construction ·Sydney Metro — Western Sydney Airport69.6 kmConstruction · 2026

Why Oxley Vale

Stable entry point

listings tightening 5.0% YoY, tight 1.3% vacancy.

Drivers
  • Supply tightening-5.0% YoY
  • Tight rentals1.3%
  • Population growth+6.5% (5y)
  • Income growth+16.0% (5y)
Risks
  • No major construction project in this state

Construction ·Sydney Metro West — Parramatta307.8 kmConstruction · 2030