Moira · 3638
Nathalia, VIC
10.7%/yr capital growth, population +7.8% (5y).
NextSuburb scoreTier D
37Below trend
Median house
$380k
5y growth
10.7%/yr
Gross yield
2.7%
Vacancy
2.4%
Thin market · ~2k residentsLow confidence
Thin marketSmall sample sizes (~16 sales/yr) can distort medians. Treat the score with caution and weight the eight-signal breakdown over the headline number.
Eight-signal breakdown
Each signal scored 0–100 against the national distribution. Bars reflect how this suburb sits across the index.
- Capital growth (5y)10.7%/yr100/100
- Population growth+7.8% (5y)78/100
- Supply tightening+5.0% YoY25/100
- Rental yield2.7%53/100
- Rental demand2.4% vacancy40/100
- Income growth+13.0% (5y)52/100
- Construction pipelineno nearby pipeline0/100
- Affordability75% under cap75/100
Why this score
Nathalia scores 37/100 (Below trend). The two strongest signals: 10.7%/yr capital growth over five years and 7.8% population growth over five years. The standout watch-out: population of 1,982 makes the market illiquid.
Drivers
- Capital growth10.7%/yr
- Population growth+7.8% (5y)
- Budget headroom75% under cap
Risks
- Only 1,982 residents — illiquid, slow to sell
- No major construction project in this state
Nearest infrastructure
North East Link — Bulleen190.8 km away
Construction · $16.5bn · completion 2028
Construction-stage projects within 10 km lift the suburb’s infrastructure score; projects more than 25 km away barely move it.
Comparable suburbs
Three VIC suburbs in the same budget band with the closest NextSuburb scores.
See the full VIC ranking60-month score history
Backfilled — live history begins May 2026Watch this suburb
Get an email when Nathalia’s score crosses a threshold you care about.