Casey · 3156
Upper Ferntree Gully, VIC
listings tightening 6.0% YoY, population +7.8% (5y).
NextSuburb scoreTier C
48Average
Median house
$765k
5y growth
3.6%/yr
Gross yield
2.5%
Vacancy
1.3%
Late-cycle holdMedium confidence
Eight-signal breakdown
Each signal scored 0–100 against the national distribution. Bars reflect how this suburb sits across the index.
- Capital growth (5y)3.6%/yr36/100
- Population growth+7.8% (5y)78/100
- Supply tightening-6.0% YoY80/100
- Rental yield2.5%50/100
- Rental demand1.3% vacancy68/100
- Income growth+16.0% (5y)64/100
- Construction pipelineno nearby pipeline0/100
- Affordability49% under cap49/100
Why this score
Upper Ferntree Gully scores 48/100 (Average). The two strongest signals: 7.8% population growth over five years and 1.3% vacancy rate. The standout watch-out: 5-year growth of 3.6%/yr trails the national pace.
Drivers
- Supply tightening-6.0% YoY
- Population growth+7.8% (5y)
- Tight rentals1.3%
- Income growth+16.0% (5y)
Risks
- Modest 5y growth (3.6%/yr)
- No major construction project in this state
Nearest infrastructure
Suburban Rail Loop East — Glen Waverley12.9 km away
Construction · $5.0bn · completion 2035
Construction-stage projects within 10 km lift the suburb’s infrastructure score; projects more than 25 km away barely move it.
Comparable suburbs
Three VIC suburbs in the same budget band with the closest NextSuburb scores.
See the full VIC ranking60-month score history
Backfilled — live history begins May 2026Watch this suburb
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